www.psychspace.com心理学空间网作者:慈惠醫院心理師 陳信吉
原文發表於心靈園地
自我應驗預言(Self-fulfilling prophecy)
不知道各位是否有過這樣的經驗：對一件事，例如上台報告或參加一個宴會，原本預期會失敗或受窘，結果真的如預期的一般，反之原本預期會成功或玩得很愉快，後來結果也不差。對於這樣的現象，也許各位不會太去重視，或認為只不過是巧合而已，但是以心理學的眼光來看，事出必有因，而且這個原因有部份還跟你有關，而究竟這樣的關係是怎樣造成的呢？這就是我們今天的主題--自我應驗預言或簡稱自驗預言--所要談的。
先從這個名詞表面的字詞來看，預言，在日常用語裡面就是對尚未發生的事情有一個預期性的想像或認定，例如氣象預報會預言明天下雨的機率有多少，而股市分析師會預言明天的股市會漲還是會跌，而所謂的應驗就是，這樣的預言成真了，例如氣象預報預言明天會是晴朗的好天氣，下雨的機率很低，而結果第二天真的出太陽，或是股市分析師預言明天的股市會上漲，結果第二天股市真的就漲了，這就表示這兩個預言應驗了。那麼，在前面加個「自我」又是什麼意思？自我，白話一點講就是自己，把他跟後面的詞合起來看，自我應驗就是自己應驗自己，一個會自己應驗自己的預言就是自我應驗預言，例如你原本預期上台報告會報得很爛，結果一上台果真結結巴巴的，證明了你的預期，所以所謂的自我應驗預言就是：「一個人對自己(或別人對自己)的預期，將會在往後的行為結果中應驗，自己的作為將驗證自己的預言」，簡單講就是「你原本預期的是什麼，結果就會受到你的預期影響而成真」。
也許你會覺得：真有那麼厲害，那不就"喊水會結凍"(台語)了？！不用說這當然是有限制的，例如我們又不是神，當然不可能要明天出太陽就出太陽，但即便我們不能完全的掌控別人或外在環境，我們還是可以掌控自己，而自我應驗預言針對的也就是自己對自己的預言，例如在醫學上早有發現的，若病人自己預期或經醫師告知病情輕微的，在治療後復原得比較快，反之若預期自己病情嚴重的，對治療的反應會比較不好，甚至很多慢性病人，例如癌症病人的病情還會因為預期不良而惡化；另外在教學成效的研究上也發現，如果學生相信自己是優秀的，那麼從學習中獲得的樂趣與成績通常也會比那些自認駑鈍的來得高；而像焦慮症、心身症等精神官能性異常，其症狀也經常是預期性焦慮的結果，例如一個社交恐懼的個案之所以無法面對陌生人，有很大部份的原因是出在他預期別人會對他有不好的評價。
為什麼會這樣呢？其中一個很重要的因素就是預期會影響到動機，例如你如果預期這次的數學考試很難，你再怎麼讀也不可能及格，那麼你將會寧願讀英文也不碰數學，而結果可想而知，反之如果你某一次在數學上獲得不錯的成績，你可能就會覺得自己在這上面是有天份的，下次在面對考試的時候就會更認真準備，成績當然會越來越好，而正因為如此，才會有心理學家提出「沒有失敗者的學校」這樣的概念，因為藉由鼓勵不僅能提昇學生的學習動機，相對的其自尊、自信等也都會比處在責罰的環境中的學生來得高。
另外一個很重要的因素是預期會影響到注意的焦點，例如有一個已經被說爛了的例子：半杯水，悲觀的人說「只剩半杯」(因為他注意到沒水的部份)，樂觀的人說「還有半杯」(因為他注意到有水的部份)，而經常我們會注意些什麼就受到你我對事件預期的影響，只要你稍加注意，生活中這樣的例子俯拾皆是，例如：對上台演講有焦慮的人經常會預期自己的演講是失敗的，而正因為他會去注意在聽眾中有多少人在打哈欠甚至打瞌睡，或是自己哪一段說得不順，所以他的演講沒有一次成功過；如果你對某個人的印象不好，你就會開始注意他有哪些讓你討厭的行為，從而越發肯定這個人是令人討厭的；一個擔心自己生病的人會去注意自己身上任何的不適，即便一點問題也沒有他也會覺得怪怪的而去看醫生；一個憂鬱症的病人因為預期未來是沒有希望的，所以在他的眼中只會看到灰暗、負面的事情；你會因為預期不受歡迎而在聚會中注意到別人經常以厭煩的態度對你，但實際上可能只是對方疲倦了而已....。
如何，很不能忽視的力量對吧？！就是因為這樣才會有人說啦：如果你相信你能，那麼你可能可以；如果你相信你不能，那麼你一定不行，所以，告訴我，你對自己的預期又是怎樣的呢？
自我应验预言（self-fulfilling prophecy)
转载
定义:A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to feedback between belief and behavior.
词语发明者: 20th-century sociologist Robert K. Merton is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalizing its structure and consequences. In his bookSocial Theory and Social Structure, Merton gives as a feature of the self-fulfilling prophecy: e.g. when Roxanna falsely believes that her marriage will fail and fears such failure will occur that it actually causes the marriage to fail.
机制:The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. In other words, a prophecy declared as truth when it is actually false may sufficiently influence people, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the once-false prophecy.
起源：Robert K. Merton's concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy stems from the Thomas theorem, which states that "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."[2] According to Thomas, people react not only to the situations they are in, but also, and often primarily, to the way they perceive the situations and to the meaning they assign to these perceptions. Therefore, their behavior is determined in part by their perception and the meaning they ascribe to the situations they are in, rather than by the situations themselves. Once people convince themselves that a situation really has a certain meaning, regardless of whether it actually does, they will take very real actions in consequence.
Merton的观点:Merton took the concept a step further and applied it to recent social phenomena. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, he conceives of a bank run at the fictional Last National Bank, over which Cartwright Millingville presides. It is a typical bank, and Millingville has run it honestly and quite properly. As a result, like all banks, it has someliquid assets (cash), but most of its assets are invested in various ventures. Then one day, a large number of customers come to the bank at once—the exact reason is never made clear. Customers, seeing so many others at the bank, begin to worry. False rumors spread that something is wrong with the bank and more customers rush to the bank to try to get some of their money out while they still can. The number of customers at the bank increases, as does their annoyance and excitement, which in turn fuels the false rumors of the bank's insolvency and upcoming bankruptcy, causing more customers to come and try to withdraw their money. At the beginning of the day—the last one for Millingville's bank—the bank was not insolvent. Merton concluded that the only way to break the cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy is by redefining the propositions on which its false assumptions are originally based.
现实应用：
1. In economic "expectations models" of inflation, peoples' expectations of future inflation lead them to spend more today and demand higher nominal interest rates for any savings, since they expect that prices will be rising. This demand for higher nominal interest rates and increased spending in the present, in turn, create inflationary pressure and can cause inflation even if the expectations of future inflation are unfounded. The expectations theory of inflation played a large role in Paul Volker's actions during his tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in combating the "stagflation" of the 1970s.
2. There is extensive evidence of "Interpersonal Expectation Effects" where the seemingly private expectations of individuals can predict the outcome of the world around them. The mechanisms by which this occurs are also reasonably well understood: it is simply that our own expectations change our behaviour in ways we may not notice and correct. In the case "Interpersonal Expectation Effects", others pick up on non-verbal behaviour which affects their attitudes. A famous example includes a study where teachers were told arbitrarily that random students were "going to blossom". Oddly, those random students actually ended the year with significantly greater improvements.
3. Other specific examples discussed in psychology include:'Clever Hans' effect, Observer-expectancy effect, Hawthorne effect,Placebo effect, Pygmalion effect , Stereotype threa.twww.psychspace.com心理学空间网
原文發表於心靈園地
自我應驗預言(Self-fulfilling prophecy)
不知道各位是否有過這樣的經驗：對一件事，例如上台報告或參加一個宴會，原本預期會失敗或受窘，結果真的如預期的一般，反之原本預期會成功或玩得很愉快，後來結果也不差。對於這樣的現象，也許各位不會太去重視，或認為只不過是巧合而已，但是以心理學的眼光來看，事出必有因，而且這個原因有部份還跟你有關，而究竟這樣的關係是怎樣造成的呢？這就是我們今天的主題--自我應驗預言或簡稱自驗預言--所要談的。
先從這個名詞表面的字詞來看，預言，在日常用語裡面就是對尚未發生的事情有一個預期性的想像或認定，例如氣象預報會預言明天下雨的機率有多少，而股市分析師會預言明天的股市會漲還是會跌，而所謂的應驗就是，這樣的預言成真了，例如氣象預報預言明天會是晴朗的好天氣，下雨的機率很低，而結果第二天真的出太陽，或是股市分析師預言明天的股市會上漲，結果第二天股市真的就漲了，這就表示這兩個預言應驗了。那麼，在前面加個「自我」又是什麼意思？自我，白話一點講就是自己，把他跟後面的詞合起來看，自我應驗就是自己應驗自己，一個會自己應驗自己的預言就是自我應驗預言，例如你原本預期上台報告會報得很爛，結果一上台果真結結巴巴的，證明了你的預期，所以所謂的自我應驗預言就是：「一個人對自己(或別人對自己)的預期，將會在往後的行為結果中應驗，自己的作為將驗證自己的預言」，簡單講就是「你原本預期的是什麼，結果就會受到你的預期影響而成真」。
也許你會覺得：真有那麼厲害，那不就"喊水會結凍"(台語)了？！不用說這當然是有限制的，例如我們又不是神，當然不可能要明天出太陽就出太陽，但即便我們不能完全的掌控別人或外在環境，我們還是可以掌控自己，而自我應驗預言針對的也就是自己對自己的預言，例如在醫學上早有發現的，若病人自己預期或經醫師告知病情輕微的，在治療後復原得比較快，反之若預期自己病情嚴重的，對治療的反應會比較不好，甚至很多慢性病人，例如癌症病人的病情還會因為預期不良而惡化；另外在教學成效的研究上也發現，如果學生相信自己是優秀的，那麼從學習中獲得的樂趣與成績通常也會比那些自認駑鈍的來得高；而像焦慮症、心身症等精神官能性異常，其症狀也經常是預期性焦慮的結果，例如一個社交恐懼的個案之所以無法面對陌生人，有很大部份的原因是出在他預期別人會對他有不好的評價。
為什麼會這樣呢？其中一個很重要的因素就是預期會影響到動機，例如你如果預期這次的數學考試很難，你再怎麼讀也不可能及格，那麼你將會寧願讀英文也不碰數學，而結果可想而知，反之如果你某一次在數學上獲得不錯的成績，你可能就會覺得自己在這上面是有天份的，下次在面對考試的時候就會更認真準備，成績當然會越來越好，而正因為如此，才會有心理學家提出「沒有失敗者的學校」這樣的概念，因為藉由鼓勵不僅能提昇學生的學習動機，相對的其自尊、自信等也都會比處在責罰的環境中的學生來得高。
另外一個很重要的因素是預期會影響到注意的焦點，例如有一個已經被說爛了的例子：半杯水，悲觀的人說「只剩半杯」(因為他注意到沒水的部份)，樂觀的人說「還有半杯」(因為他注意到有水的部份)，而經常我們會注意些什麼就受到你我對事件預期的影響，只要你稍加注意，生活中這樣的例子俯拾皆是，例如：對上台演講有焦慮的人經常會預期自己的演講是失敗的，而正因為他會去注意在聽眾中有多少人在打哈欠甚至打瞌睡，或是自己哪一段說得不順，所以他的演講沒有一次成功過；如果你對某個人的印象不好，你就會開始注意他有哪些讓你討厭的行為，從而越發肯定這個人是令人討厭的；一個擔心自己生病的人會去注意自己身上任何的不適，即便一點問題也沒有他也會覺得怪怪的而去看醫生；一個憂鬱症的病人因為預期未來是沒有希望的，所以在他的眼中只會看到灰暗、負面的事情；你會因為預期不受歡迎而在聚會中注意到別人經常以厭煩的態度對你，但實際上可能只是對方疲倦了而已....。
如何，很不能忽視的力量對吧？！就是因為這樣才會有人說啦：如果你相信你能，那麼你可能可以；如果你相信你不能，那麼你一定不行，所以，告訴我，你對自己的預期又是怎樣的呢？
自我应验预言（self-fulfilling prophecy)
转载
定义:A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to feedback between belief and behavior.
词语发明者: 20th-century sociologist Robert K. Merton is credited with coining the expression "self-fulfilling prophecy" and formalizing its structure and consequences. In his bookSocial Theory and Social Structure, Merton gives as a feature of the self-fulfilling prophecy: e.g. when Roxanna falsely believes that her marriage will fail and fears such failure will occur that it actually causes the marriage to fail.
机制:The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. In other words, a prophecy declared as truth when it is actually false may sufficiently influence people, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the once-false prophecy.
起源：Robert K. Merton's concept of the self-fulfilling prophecy stems from the Thomas theorem, which states that "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."[2] According to Thomas, people react not only to the situations they are in, but also, and often primarily, to the way they perceive the situations and to the meaning they assign to these perceptions. Therefore, their behavior is determined in part by their perception and the meaning they ascribe to the situations they are in, rather than by the situations themselves. Once people convince themselves that a situation really has a certain meaning, regardless of whether it actually does, they will take very real actions in consequence.
Merton的观点:Merton took the concept a step further and applied it to recent social phenomena. In his book Social Theory and Social Structure, he conceives of a bank run at the fictional Last National Bank, over which Cartwright Millingville presides. It is a typical bank, and Millingville has run it honestly and quite properly. As a result, like all banks, it has someliquid assets (cash), but most of its assets are invested in various ventures. Then one day, a large number of customers come to the bank at once—the exact reason is never made clear. Customers, seeing so many others at the bank, begin to worry. False rumors spread that something is wrong with the bank and more customers rush to the bank to try to get some of their money out while they still can. The number of customers at the bank increases, as does their annoyance and excitement, which in turn fuels the false rumors of the bank's insolvency and upcoming bankruptcy, causing more customers to come and try to withdraw their money. At the beginning of the day—the last one for Millingville's bank—the bank was not insolvent. Merton concluded that the only way to break the cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy is by redefining the propositions on which its false assumptions are originally based.
现实应用：
1. In economic "expectations models" of inflation, peoples' expectations of future inflation lead them to spend more today and demand higher nominal interest rates for any savings, since they expect that prices will be rising. This demand for higher nominal interest rates and increased spending in the present, in turn, create inflationary pressure and can cause inflation even if the expectations of future inflation are unfounded. The expectations theory of inflation played a large role in Paul Volker's actions during his tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve in combating the "stagflation" of the 1970s.
2. There is extensive evidence of "Interpersonal Expectation Effects" where the seemingly private expectations of individuals can predict the outcome of the world around them. The mechanisms by which this occurs are also reasonably well understood: it is simply that our own expectations change our behaviour in ways we may not notice and correct. In the case "Interpersonal Expectation Effects", others pick up on non-verbal behaviour which affects their attitudes. A famous example includes a study where teachers were told arbitrarily that random students were "going to blossom". Oddly, those random students actually ended the year with significantly greater improvements.
3. Other specific examples discussed in psychology include:'Clever Hans' effect, Observer-expectancy effect, Hawthorne effect,Placebo effect, Pygmalion effect , Stereotype threa.twww.psychspace.com心理学空间网
